Dutch Asylum Approval Rates Plummet to Historic Low of 36%
The Hague, 20 May 2026
The Netherlands has witnessed a dramatic shift in asylum policy, with approval rates crashing from 58% to 36% in 2025 - marking the first time rejections outnumber approvals. This 22 percentage point decline affects thousands of asylum seekers and coincides with decreased court support for IND decisions, dropping from 87% to 80%. The change reflects stricter assessment criteria and mounting political pressure on immigration services, raising questions about decision-making quality in what experts describe as one of the most problematic forms of administrative judgement in modern governance.
Decision Volume Drops Alongside Quality Concerns
The Immigration and Naturalisation Service processed significantly fewer asylum applications in 2025, taking 26,150 decisions in the general and extended asylum procedure compared to 33,160 in 2024 - a decrease of approximately -21.14 per cent [1]. This reduction in processing volume coincided with a concerning decline in judicial confidence in IND decisions, as courts followed the service’s rulings in only 80% of cases in 2025, down from 87% in 2024 [1]. The drop in both approval rates and judicial support raises fundamental questions about the quality of decision-making processes within the asylum system.
Regional Factors Drive Policy Shifts
The dramatic decline in approval rates stems partially from developments in countries of origin, particularly a decrease in Syrian applications and policy changes affecting Syria, Yemen, and Turkey [1]. These geopolitical shifts have fundamentally altered the landscape for asylum seekers from regions that previously received more favourable treatment. However, the scale of the decline suggests that policy implementation changes within the IND itself play a significant role beyond external factors. The timing coincides with increased political pressure on immigration services to take a stricter approach to asylum applications.
Academic Research Highlights Systemic Pressures
Bob Mertens, a PhD candidate at the University of Trento, explains that administrative quality in asylum procedures depends critically on how services organise political pressure, work pressure, and expertise [1]. His research, published in 2026, demonstrates through comparative analysis that quality cannot be explained by any single factor alone [1]. Mertens notes that ‘when files pile up and employees are mainly driven towards production, it becomes apparent that more decisions are overturned by the courts’ [1]. This observation directly correlates with the current situation where increased workload pressures appear to coincide with declining judicial approval of IND decisions.
Systemic Quality Under Scrutiny
Legal scholar Robert Thomas characterised asylum decision-making in 2011 as ‘notoriously difficult’ and ‘perhaps one of the most problematic forms of administrative judgement in the modern state’ [1]. This assessment proves particularly relevant given current developments, as quality concerns extend beyond individual case files to encompass the entire system that produces decisions day after day [1]. The quality of asylum decisions encompasses both the juridical correctness of individual rulings and the integrity of the decision-making process itself [1]. With rejection rates now exceeding approvals for the first time, the Dutch asylum system faces unprecedented scrutiny over whether current procedures adequately balance thorough assessment with fair treatment of applicants seeking international protection.