Europe Prepares for Massive Iranian Refugee Crisis as US-Israel Strikes Target Tehran
Brussels, 28 February 2026
European migration officials are urgently assessing capacity as coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes hit Iran on 26 February 2026, potentially triggering one of history’s largest refugee movements. With Iran’s 90 million population, experts warn that even 10% displacement could rival this century’s biggest crises, whilst a quarter would increase global refugees by 75%. Historical precedents show Iraq displaced one-sixth of its population in 2003, Syria forced 6.7 million to flee, and Libya created one million refugees in 2011. European asylum systems, already strained, face unprecedented pressure as Trump urges Iranians to revolt against their regime.
Military Operations Escalate Across Iran
The coordinated military campaign against Iran began on 26 February 2026, with US and Israeli forces targeting military sites and ballistic missile storage facilities across multiple Iranian cities [1][2]. Iranian media reported explosions in Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, and Qom on 27 February [4]. The American military expects operations to continue for several days [2], whilst Iran has responded by firing rockets at Israeli territories, triggering air raid sirens and prompting civilians to seek shelter [2]. US President Donald Trump confirmed the military campaign in an eight-minute video posted on Truth Social, stating that Iran was developing nuclear weapons and that Iran’s missile programme would be “met de grond gelijk” (levelled) [4].
Trump’s Call for Iranian Uprising
In his video message, Trump urged the Iranian population to revolt against their government once military operations conclude, declaring “Dit is waarschijnlijk jullie enige kans” (This is probably your only chance) [4]. The US President specifically called for Iranians to “take over your government” after American forces complete their mission, describing it as “probably your only chance in generations” [4]. Trump claimed the Iranian regime has chanted “Dood aan Amerika” (Death to America) for 47 years and encouraged Iranians to “unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is within reach” [4]. Both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated the operation “creates circumstances in which the Iranian people can take their fate into their own hands” [2].
Historical Precedents Point to Massive Displacement
Security experts warn the Iranian conflict could trigger unprecedented refugee movements, drawing parallels to recent Middle Eastern crises [1]. The 2003 Iraq conflict displaced one in six Iraqis, resulting in millions of refugees [1]. The Syrian civil war, beginning eight years after 2003, forced 6.7 million citizens to flee [1]. The Arab Spring protests in 2011 sparked internal conflicts in Libya, causing one million people to seek refuge [1]. With Iran’s population of 90 million [1], even a 10% displacement rate could rival the largest refugee movements of this century [1]. Should a quarter of Iran’s population flee, it would increase the global refugee population by 75%, according to the UNHCR [1].
European Asylum Systems Face Unprecedented Pressure
European migration systems, already operating under significant strain, confront the prospect of managing what could become history’s largest refugee crisis [GPT]. Between 2015 and 2024, 62,000 Iranians sought asylum in the UK alone, representing 15,000 more applicants than Afghan asylum seekers during the same period [1]. Alex Nowrasteh, senior vice-president at the Cato Institute, warned that “the chaotic repercussions of such a massive refugee population disrupted the Middle East and Europe” when referencing Syria [1]. The EU’s existing Migration and Asylum Pact from May 2024, which regulates asylum processes and migrant distribution, may prove inadequate for such an influx [3]. Current EU policies have already created bottlenecks, with approximately 35,000 refugees dying in the last 10 years attempting to reach Europe [3].