Over 50,000 Asylum Seekers in the Netherlands Face Years More Waiting as Government Promises Backlog Cleared by 2029
The Hague, 5 June 2026
The Dutch government says the asylum backlog will be gone in three years, but critics warn that 70% of processing capacity goes to new cases, leaving those already waiting at the back of the queue — again.
A Promise Under Scrutiny
Minister of Asylum and Migration Bart van den Brink (CDA) wrote to the Dutch parliament (Tweede Kamer) on 4 June 2026, asserting that the current backlog of asylum cases can be resolved within three years — meaning those already waiting should receive a decision by approximately 2029 [1]. The announcement was intended to reframe what had, until recently, appeared to be a far grimmer outlook. Earlier projections had warned that without intervention, the waiting time for existing asylum applicants could stretch to anywhere between eight and ten years — or even longer [2]. For those following this story, it is worth recalling that this development comes in the immediate wake of a landmark court ruling: as reported previously, from 1 June 2026, the Dutch Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND) can no longer lawfully delay asylum decisions beyond the standard six-month legal deadline — a ruling that has already reshaped the legal landscape for thousands of applicants. That full background is available in our earlier report: Dutch Court Forces Immigration Service to Drop Unlawful Asylum Delays — With a Major EU Overhaul Days Away.
The Scale of the Backlog
To understand the significance of Van den Brink’s promise, it is necessary to grasp the sheer size of the problem it is meant to address. Approximately 50,000 asylum seekers are currently waiting at Dutch reception centres — locations such as Ter Apel, Biddinghuizen, and Epe, the last of which has been operational since spring 2024 — for a decision from the IND [2]. Half of this group has already been waiting for more than 15 months, despite the legal deadline for a decision being just six months [2]. The human reality behind these numbers is illustrated by cases such as that of Halil Albatros, a 36-year-old Syrian national who had been waiting for nearly three years as of early June 2026, with his last IND appointment dating back to around June 2024 [2]. “The waiting is terribly long,” Albatros said [2]. A 2025 report by PwC concluded that, without measures, clearing the IND backlog could take as long as 11.9 years [2]. An internal IND projection was somewhat less pessimistic but still forecast that those currently in the queue might not receive a decision until 2031 [2]. The Algemene Rekenkamer (Netherlands Court of Audit) assessed that even this internal forecast was too optimistic, noting on 20 May 2026 that the number of asylum seekers in the first quarter of 2026 had risen unexpectedly by one third compared with the same quarter in 2025 [2]. As early as 19 May 2026, concerns had been voiced that Ter Apel would face even greater pressure from June 2026 onwards [1].
The Capacity Question: Who Gets Priority?
The crux of the controversy surrounding Van den Brink’s three-year commitment lies in how the IND intends to distribute its resources. From the week of 8 June 2026, the IND will overhaul its working method to align with the European Union’s Asylum and Migration Pact, which enters into force on 12 June 2026 [2]. Under this new approach, up to 73 per cent of IND capacity will be directed towards new asylum applications submitted after 12 June 2026, leaving a minimum of 27 per cent for the existing backlog of older cases [2]. The consequences of this split are stark. Under this allocation, the IND expects to process only approximately 3,000 of the existing 50,000 old cases in the second half of 2026 — that is, between 1 July and 31 December 2026 [2]. At that rate, clearing the entire existing backlog would take 8.333 years without any acceleration measures, a figure that underscores why critics are deeply sceptical of the minister’s three-year pledge. VluchtelingenWerk Nederland, the Dutch refugee support organisation, was pointed in its assessment: “The choice to deploy approximately 70 per cent of IND capacity on new applications means in practice that people who have already been waiting for years are again placed at the back of the queue” [1][2]. The Dutch Senate (Eerste Kamer) approved the EU Asylum and Migration Pact on 26 May 2026 [1], and the Algemene Rekenkamer had already concluded on 21 May 2026 that the pact risked extending rather than reducing asylum waiting times [1].
The Minister’s Strategy — and the Critics’ Response
Van den Brink has outlined a series of measures intended to close the gap between the bleak projections and his three-year promise. His plan includes categorising asylum seekers according to their likelihood of being granted a residence permit, allowing IND staff to specialise in particular case types, and using standardised responses for similar applications [1][2]. The IND has also committed to increasing its productivity by at least 25 per cent through smarter and more efficient working practices [2]. On 5 June 2026 — the date of publication of this article — the minister and the IND were scheduled to present a new process document setting out precisely how the timeline for the 50,000 existing cases would be shortened [2]. The IND indicated that the details would be made public in due course [2]. However, the response from legal professionals and civil society has been far from reassuring. Wil Eikelboom, chair of the Association of Asylum Lawyers Netherlands (Vereniging van Asieladvocaten Nederland), described a three-year wait as “utterly unacceptably long” and characterised the proposed efficiency measures as “tinkering at the margins” [1]. VluchtelingenWerk added that previous attempts to accelerate asylum procedures had not achieved the desired effect [1]. The political dimension adds further complexity. On 3 June 2026, right-wing party JA21 stated that the EU Asylum and Migration Pact is “a step in the right direction” but demanded far more fundamental reforms [4]. JA21 member of parliament Diederik Boomsma summed up the party’s position starkly: “Asylum must become a privilege, not a right” [4]. JA21 had planned to present a formal motion to parliament on 4 June 2026 calling for a national opt-out from EU asylum relocation quotas [4][alert! ‘It is not confirmed from available sources whether this motion was formally submitted or voted upon’].
What This Means for Those Currently Waiting
For asylum seekers living in AZC reception centres across the Netherlands, the practical implications of these developments are significant but uncertain. The minister’s letter provides an official government estimate — a target of resolving existing cases by around 2029 — but it does not constitute a legal guarantee of individual timelines [1]. The capacity split means that those who have already been waiting the longest are not necessarily first in line; rather, the IND’s new structure from 12 June 2026 prioritises newly arriving applicants in order to comply with EU Pact deadlines [2]. Individual waiting times will continue to depend on a range of factors, including the type of procedure in question, the applicant’s country of origin, and the complexity of the specific case [GPT]. Anyone with concerns about the status of their application is advised to contact their legal aid provider (rechtsbijstandverlener) or reach out to VluchtelingenWerk Nederland directly [GPT]. The coming weeks — particularly the period following the EU Pact’s entry into force on 12 June 2026 — will be critical in determining whether Van den Brink’s promise holds, or whether the backlog deepens further in the face of rising arrival numbers and constrained IND resources.